Top 10 College Football Must Watch Games

As Week Six falls upon us today, conference races really heat up in the SEC East, SEC West & Big 12. The eyes of the nation will be deep in the heart of Texas, the Ozark Mountains and Rocky Top. There are five very intriguing games this weekend and then a lot of dogs! So let’s take a look at 10 can’t-miss college football games today.

Oklahoma/Texas: The Red River Rivalry takes center stage at the Cotton Bowl with the backdrop being the Texas State Fair. The two teams enter the match-up with unblemished records for the second time in the last seven years, and the high stakes, High Noon showdown will finally bring attention to the Southwest Conference, I mean Big 8, I mean Big 12, I mean Big 12 minus 2 (Colorado & Nebraska), minus 1 (Texas A&M), and add 1 (TCU). Which game were we discussing before conference realignment began?
Prediction: Texas brands OU, 37-31.

Auburn @ Arkansas: Both of these teams are coming off come-from-behind road victories last week. The Auburn defense will be tested through the air, as Petrino’s pass-happy hogs will sound the air raid sirens. The Tigers will counter the aerial assault with a stout ground attack led by sophomore RB Michael Dyer, who touched the ball 42 times last week versus South Carolina.
Prediction: There will be no Pickled Pigs Paws on the menu for these Tigers, Hawgs wild 44-31.

Georgia @ Tennessee: Mark Richt brings his young pups deep in the Appalachian Mountains looking for Volunteers. Will Vince Dooley lead the Fightin’ Dooleys into Neyland Stadium against the silver & black? The last two trips to Rocky Top were Rocky Horror shows for UGA, and a third beat down would unleash the dawgs on Richt & Co. in Athens.
Prediction: Big Orange squeezes UGA, 31-27.

Miami @ Virginia Tech: Who kidnapped the Hokies last week? Will the real Virginia Tech please stand up in Blacksburg? In another lackluster A-She-She conference game, these two teams are trying to avoid an 0-2 conference start. Miami has simply been gashed in the running game by opposing teams, especially the last two games, surrendering 484 rushing yards. Sounds like the storm brewing in Blacksburg might not bring a golden opportunity for the Canes.
Prediction: Neither team can throw, so I like ground turkey, Virginia Tech 30-20.

Ohio State @ Nebraska: Well, with the return of Terrell Pryor, Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes squad ventures into Lincoln with at least a puncher’s chance. Oh wait, Jim Tressel is in the NFL, along with Terrell Pryor. Ironic how neither stayed around to face the music! OSU might have its worst team in years after tattoo gate. Is anyone crying for the Buckeyes? Me either! Fear the children of the corn, Ohio State!
Prediction: Nebraska shucks the Buckeyes back to Columbus, 31-13.

Air Force @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame begins its tour of duty this week with its annual contests with the service academies. Does anyone else think Notre Dame secretly wants inclusion into this Commander-in-Chief’s Cup race, since it’s the only hardware the Irish might bring home at year’s end.
Prediction: Notre Dame shoots down Air Force, 38-31.

Missouri @ Kansas State: The annual border bash to claim owner’s rights to Kansas City BBQ (I made this up…). Missouri brings a high-powered offense into the Little Apple (Manhattan, KS) to face a surprising KSU team. Kansas State is coming off back-to-back nail-biting wins over Miami and Baylor. The scoreboard will get a workout tonight.
Prediction: In a cat fight, Mizzou claws KSU 43-42.

Florida @ LSU: The top-ranked Bayou Bengals welcome an ailing Gators’ team into Death Valley. Florida will start a true freshman, Jeff Driskell, at quarterback for the injured John Brantley. Talk about Tiger Bait! I predict gator on the menu in Baton Rouge.
Prediction: LSU sends the Gators packing, 34-13.

Kentucky @ USC: Well, if you like offense, you might want to watch another game. Coming into the game these two teams have not set the offensive record books on fire. Connor Shaw replaces the erratic Stephen Garcia at quarterback for the Gamecocks, hoping to revive a dormant offense. Potentially without standout DE Melvin Ingram, the Gamecocks will have to look elsewhere for TDs. Paging Mr. Clowney!
Prediction: In a shootout, USC leaves UK feeling blue, 17-13.

Wyoming @ Utah State: If you have not seen Utah State play this year, please take time to watch them. They have a fantastic running back (Turbin) and freshman quarterback (Keeton). Do you remember opening weekend when the Aggies almost beat Auburn? Utah State is 1-3, but the three losses have been by a combined eight points, all on the road. I promise Utah State will keep the game interesting on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Utah State corrals the Cowboys, 31-27.

My next blog will be posted Monday as I review the USC/Kentucky game and peek ahead to Mississippi State.

Go Gamecocks!

Five Keys for a USC Victory over Kentucky

Since I last blogged, USC has a new starting quarterback and the sun has still risen all week long in Columbia, SC. The most obvious personnel decision was made Monday night, when Steve Spurrier announced, post-practice, that true sophomore Connor Shaw would replace Stephen Garcia at quarterback for the Gamecocks versus Kentucky. I was pulling for Garcia to turnaround his fortunes, but if Carolina is going to aspire to preseason goals then Spurrier could afford no more mulligans with his fifth-year senior quarterback. South Carolina’s season didn't end with a loss to Auburn. Was it discouraging? Yes! Did the loss derail USC’s chances to repeat as the SEC East representative in the Georgia Dome come early December? Nope! The Gamecocks still control their destiny in the SEC East race having already defeated UGA & Vanderbilt (divisional foes). Yes, our hopes of an undefeated season have come to a halt. Yes, our arch rivals in the Upstate are undefeated and smoked Auburn. All of USC’s preseason goals (I do not believe undefeated season was a realistic goal) are still attainable, but a loss to UK tomorrow at the cockpit would seriously derail the Gamecocks’ season. Let’s take a look at five factors that will determine the outcome of the divisional match-up Saturday afternoon.

Shawshank Redemption: Connor Shaw’s second start under center will be far less scrutinized then his first start earlier this season against ECU. When Spurrier made the surprise announcement back on September 1st, you would have thought the government was taking over healthcare (Oh wait! That already happened!) with all the public outrage by USC fans that the beloved Stephen Garcia would not start the 2011 season as the Gamecocks quarterback. Spurrier said Shaw beat out Garcia in the preseason quarterback derby and deserved to start versus ECU. Shaw quickly discovered the immense popularity USC fans bestow upon their beloved, dynamic #5. At the end of the first quarter and USC staring at a 17-0 deficit, Shaw meekly went to the bench (as planned) and watched Garcia quickly reverse USC’s fortunes (with LOTS of aid from ECU) and propel Carolina to a convincing win. Fast forward to Saturday, where Shaw once again is the starting quarterback, but with one caveat. Per Spurrier, Shaw will complete the game barring any injury. There will be no looking over his shoulder, no Garcia second guessing and teammates will be 100% behind Shaw versus the Wildcats (some questioned if all the players had Shaw’s back once Spurrier named Shaw the opening game starter). This opportunity is redemption for Shaw and if he is successful in protecting the football and completing passes, then the Connor Shaw era might not wait until 2012. Stephen Garcia has been given every single opportunity to improve his play this year. Unfortunately, however, he leads the FBS in interceptions with nine. Carolina fans should not expect miracles from Connor Shaw on Saturday and beyond. Shaw is young, playing behind a makeshift offensive line and an offensive coaching staff that quite frankly has coached very subpar so far this season. My advice to everyone on Saturday afternoon is to hope that Shaw can complete enough passes to loosen the UK defense which allows Marcus Lattimore more running room, manages the game, distributes the ball to playmakers and doesn’t force the ball where opportunities do not exist, i.e. turnovers.

Let’s Get Physical: As concerning as the deterioration of the quarterback play over the last eight quarters, coincidentally the offensive line has gotten its A$$ kicked the last two games! There is a reason why Garcia has thrown six interceptions the last two games and been running for his life– poor offensive line play! Vanderbilt and Auburn successfully devised a scheme for their defensive tackles to get penetration up field and disrupt running lanes for USC RB Marcus Lattimore. If you watch the three interior lineman for USC (LG: AJ Cann/Center: TJ Johnson/RG: Terrence Campbell) against UK this week, try and see if those three players get pushed back into Carolina’s backfield or create a surge that allows Lattimore room to pick a hole and run through it. The past two games those three players on USC’s o-line continuously got knocked into the backfield and, subsequently, Lattimore had no cutback lanes or openings to gain positive yards. Lattimore netted 143 rushing yards over the last two games after defenses stacked the box (placing 8 or 9 defenders no less than 8 yards from line of scrimmage) to halt the ground game. A stable running game can cure a lot of the ailments surrounding the USC offense. A running game starts up front with a physical offensive line. USC will be starting a new o-line this week: LT: Rokevious Watkins (switched from Right Tackle), LG: AJ Cann, Center: TJ Johnson, RG: Terrence Campbell, RT: Cody Gibson (new starter). The front five must keep Shaw upright in order for USC to win this game. UK is one of the best Pass Defenses, yielding 163 yards per game, in FBS but rank 100th in Run Defense, yielding 198 yards per game. If the o-line can give Shaw enough time to scan through his pass progressions and find his 2nd or 3rd receiver options, then the Wildcats will be forced to play honest defense (defend both pass & run) in which Lattimore will find more running lanes as the game evolves.

Dominant Defense: Carolina over the last ten quarters has only allowed 19 points and less than 450 yards of total offense (Navy, Vanderbilt & Auburn). Kentucky comes to Billy-Brice as the most inept offense in the SEC. Per ESPN, Kentucky is dead last in yards from scrimmage per game (255.6) and touchdowns (nine). UK Quarterback Morgan Newton has thrown six touchdowns to go along with his six interceptions. USC’s Pass Defense ranks 3rd in the FBS, but that is because opponents are finding more success running the ball on Carolina’s defense in 2011. Fortunately, rushing the football is not UK’s forte. South Carolina’s Secondary has been ball-hawkish this season, as they have registered eight INTs (Antonio Allen leads with three, while Melvin Ingram has two). Overall, the Gamecocks defense has been very opportunistic in 2011 recording 16 takeaways (8 fumble recoveries/8 interceptions), which ranks second in FBS rankings. The defense has tallied 13 sacks through five games, and against a beleaguered UK o-line the Carolina front four should get pressure on the Wildcats quarterback. As of today, senior defensive end Melvin Ingram is doubtful, so expect a heavy dose of Jadeveon Clowney and sophomore Chaz Sutton. With the UK offense being so anemic, IMHO, the front seven of USC should be able to handle and dictate what Kentucky does on offense.

1 loss does not = 2 losses: Even though Auburn ended dreams of an undefeated season, do not allow last week’s loss to linger into the Kentucky game. The Wildcats are a divisional opponent, and if USC wants to maintain its lead in the SEC East, it cannot afford a slip up versus a lowly Kentucky squad that has not beaten a Top 25 opponent on the road since 2002 (won at Louisville), per ESPN. Since 2002, Kentucky has lost 18 straight road contests versus ranked teams by almost three touchdowns, per ESPN. Losing to a divisional opponent does far more damage than losing to an SEC West team. Remember, the Gamecocks own the tie-breaker with UGA having beaten Georgia 45-42 in Athens. Georgia travels to Knoxville on Saturday in a key SEC East showdown at 7 p.m. If Carolina takes care of business against the Wildcats, then USC fans need to root hard for Tennessee to beat Georgia. The Gamecocks can’t afford a hiccup on Saturday and still have a legitimate chance to win the SEC East.

Revenge: Last year after five games Carolina was 4-1 and riding sky high after upsetting then #1 Alabama at home (oh, how a year later and one loss changes everything!). USC fans had all but written down a “W” in the win column, as Kentucky was already an afterthought. By halftime of the USC/UK game, Carolina led 31-10 after looking like a well-oiled machine on offense in Lexington, KY. Then the two teams switched jerseys at halftime, Lattimore suffers an ankle injury and UK’s defense holds Garcia & Co. to 103 total yards of offense in the 2nd half (49 came on the last drive of the 4th quarter). Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb capped a furious second-half rally (21 straight points) when the two connected with 1:15 left in the 4th quarter for the go-ahead touchdown and seconds later Cobb added the two-point conversion. The loss clearly affected South Carolina the following weekend in Nashville, as USC labored through a win versus Vanderbilt without starting freshman Marcus Lattimore. Every single USC player should seek payback against Kentucky on Saturday and avenge last year’s embarrassing second-half collapse!

Spurspective’s Prediction: Carolina wins UGLY 17-13.

My next blog will be Saturday morning when I will give my Top 10 college football “Must Watch” games Of Week Six.

Go Gamecocks!

USC/Auburn Review and Preview of the SEC East Race

What a tough pill to swallow on Saturday night watching the end of the South Carolina/Auburn game. The Gamecocks had come out on the winning side of the last couple of close wins (Georgia & Navy) this year but could not make the plays during crunch time to beat Auburn. (Will USC ever beat Auburn?) It has been more than 28,250 days (1933), fuzzy math possibly, since USC last defeated Auburn in college football. The Tigers have defeated the Gamecocks three times in the last 371 days, per AuburnUndercover.com. It is apparent that the 2011 Gamecocks offense has multiple issues at the most vital positions – quarterback and offensive line. I blame this loss on the USC offensive coaches. Steve Spurrier and his offensive assistants have had more than nine months, since the loss to FSU in the bowl game, to fix the ailments that continuously plague this team since really the 2007 season completed, IMHO. Going into year number seven of the Spurrier regime, we have yet to develop a quarterback, and because of poor o-line coaching and recruiting through the first four years of Spurrier’s tenure, USC is severely lagging with developed o-line prospects. Let’s look inside the numbers of why Carolina suffered its first setback of the season.

The Bad:

1. Auburn ran 92 plays on offense versus USC’s 52.
2. Auburn running back Michael Dyer had 42 touches (41 rushes/141 yards, 1 pass/6 yards) – ten fewer than the entire USC offense!
3. Gamecocks ran 17 plays for 93 yards of total offense in the 2nd half, with 50 yards coming on the scoring drive (two plays).
4. Per Scott Hood, GamecockCentral.com, USC ran ONLY four plays in Auburn territory – three on the final drive! In contrast, Auburn ran 52 plays in USC territory. So Auburn had as many plays in USC’s territory throughout the game as Carolina had total number of plays in the game!
5. Auburn converted 11/22 (50%) of third-down conversions. Auburn was yielding 60% of third-down conversions entering the contest.
6. The Gamecocks converted 2/10 (20%) of third-down conversions.
7. Carolina began an offensive series inside USC’s own 12-yard line half a dozen times, per AuburnUndercover.com; the Auburn punter was outstanding!
8. Auburn scored the winning touchdown against USC just as the Tigers executed versus Alabama last year to win in Tuscaloosa by one point. Per Auburn offensive coordinator, Gus Malzahn, they had not used that play since last year’s BAMA game.
9. Auburn rushed for 246 yards on 67 attempts. In the last seven games dating back to the 2010 SEC Championship Game, the USC defense is surrendering 179 rushing yards.
10. In the last seven games, Stephen Garcia has thrown 14 interceptions with only five touchdown passes. In that span of games, Garcia is averaging seven yards per pass completion.
11. On the game winning drive, Auburn drove 57 yards in 12 plays using 3:49 of the remaining 5:27 in the game. On the game-winning drive, Barrett Trotter was perfect on third-down conversions (4/4) including a 3rd & 13 for a 15-yard completion. The game-winning TD was scored on 3rd & 5.
12. Auburn has won eleven SEC contests in a row!

The Good:
1. Melvin Ingram – enough said! SuperMelvin recorded eleven tackles – 4.5 tackles-for-loss and 3.5 sacks!
2. Antonio Allen – registered 13 tackles – 3 tackles-for-loss and one interception
3. C.C. Whitlock recorded his first two interceptions of the year; the interceptions came on consecutive Auburn drives. Whitlock intercepted a pass late 3rd quarter, fumbled the ball back over to Auburn and then intercepted a pass in the end zone on the first possession of the 4th quarter.
4. USC’s defense surrendered 3.9 yards per play (92 total plays run by Auburn’s offense).
5. In the last 10 quarters, USC has allowed 19 points & 547 yards of total offense! The defense is getting better!

The Ugly:
1. The length of the game: three hours & 59 minutes, per The State.
2. Coach Spurrier calling USC’s final time out with 00:12 to play in the game, forcing the USC offense to throw a pass over the middle of the field to get into FG range, but time expired as Ellington was tackled.
3. Carolina had 13 of 14 possessions that lasted five plays or fewer, per Ron Morris of The State newspaper.
4. Of USC’s 14 possessions, seven resulted in punts, two interceptions, one fumble, two when the clock expired (half time and end of game).
5. USC amassed the fewest total yards of offense that the Auburn defense has surrendered in 2011. Even lowly Florida Atlantic, ranked 119th out of 120 teams, accumulated over 300 yards of total offense against Auburn the week before Carolina!

I think I have given my faithful readers enough statistics to digest Carolina’s first loss of this season. These numbers paint a pitiful picture of offensive futility at USC. I predict right now that there will not be 60,000 fans at the Kentucky game. If this offense is not fixed ASAP, I predict a 6-7 season. When Spurrier plays Garcia at QB, SOS is letting down the other 84 scholarship players IMHO!

The SEC East race is wide open, folks. IMHO, the road to the SEC East runs through Knoxville, TN. Two teams have stability at the quarterback position: UGA & Tennessee.
Florida’s starting QB, John Brantley, reportedly has a broken fibula and might be out for the rest of the season. His backup, Jeff Driskell, is a freshman. Kentucky, Vanderbilt and USC all have QB issues!
UGA travels to Rocky Top this weekend, while USC travels to Knoxville in late October. If Georgia gets by UT, then a trip to the Georgia Dome is very conceivable for Georgia fans. UF, UT and USC all have tough road games upcoming. Keep your eyes on UGA, because right now I consider the Bulldogs in the SEC East’s driver’s seat.

My next blog will be Friday afternoon (I am going to skip Wednesday), when I will reveal the five keys to the USC/Kentucky game and Spurspective's prediction which might surprise Gamecock fans.

Go Gamecocks!