Friday, September 23, 2011

Inside the Numbers between USC/Vanderbilt Match-Up


Saturday night, #12 South Carolina welcomes an undefeated (3-0) Vanderbilt team to Williams-Brice. The Commodores are under a brand new regime, as former Maryland Offensive Coordinator James Franklin takes the wheel of the Vanderbilt ship. Franklin is the first head coach at Vanderbilt to start 3-0 in his inaugural season since WWII, per ESPN. The Commodores have beaten Elon (opener), Connecticut and Ole Miss at home by an average score of 33-14, per ESPN. This will be Vanderbilt’s first road game of the 2011 season. Franklin is Vanderbilt’s third coach in as many seasons, per The Spurs & Feathers. USC and Vanderbilt have split the last four meetings in this SEC East series 2-2. Carolina has won the last two meetings, narrowly winning in Columbia two years ago, 14-10. The contest with Vanderbilt is the second home game of a four-game home stand. Let’s look inside five keys to the game and see where Carolina might enjoy success Saturday night and where USC could be vulnerable against its SEC East opponent.

Fast Start: The Gamecocks are the second-highest scoring offense in the SEC (41 points/game) but have scored only one touchdown in the opening stanza (Lattimore scored a TD versus Navy in 1st quarter last week, per The Spurs & Feathers). Adversely, USC has fallen behind in its first three games by a combined score of 20-7 in the first quarter. The USC offense has been very lethargic and discombobulated on its opening drives the last two ballgames. An early score would promptly give South Carolina momentum in the game that will energize the crowd and give the defense more opportunities to play with a lead versus a deficit. After the 1st Quarter, Carolina has outscored its opponents 118-80, per The Spurs & Feathers. The Vanderbilt defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in total defense, 250 yards allowed per game, and have recorded eight sacks, per ESPN, so Carolina faces a daunting task Saturday night to produce points.

Avoid Turnovers: Vanderbilt is one of the most ball-hawking defenses in the NCAA so far this young season. The Commodores have 12 takeaways [ten interceptions, Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) leaders on the young season and two fumble recoveries], including five INTs last week versus Ole Miss. The Commodores have scored TDs on three of the ten interceptions, per ESPN. Vanderbilt is a veteran defense with at least nine starters that have at least two years or more of starting experience. So it’s a seasoned unit that the Gamecocks’ offense will battle on Saturday night. Carolina should expect a lot of blitzing and different defensive looks to confuse Garcia & the offense with hopes of inducing a turnover by the Gamecocks.

Vanderbilt Meet Mr. Lattimore: If you remember last year, Marcus Lattimore sat out the Vanderbilt game after being injured at Kentucky, so Brian Maddox rushed for a career high 146 yards on 24 carries. Lattimore enters this weekend’s game as the nation’s leading rusher with 178 ypg, per NCAA. The sophomore sensation from Duncan, SC has scored seven rushing touchdowns. Lattimore leads the FBS this season with 16 runs of 10-plus yards, per ESPN. Vanderbilt ranks 26th in FBS in Run Defense and is giving up 2.45 yards per rush to opponents, 86 rush yards per game and one rushing touchdown, per NCAA. USC ranks 14th in the FBS in Rushing Offense and is averaging 5.82 rush yards/per attempt, 11 rushing touchdowns and 242 rushing yards/per game. So far this season two of Vanderbilt’s opponents, UConn-77th and Ole Miss-98th, rank in the bottom third of FBS rushing offenses. Carolina has a very physical offensive line and IMHO, Vanderbilt will have a difficult night, especially 2nd half, trying to stop a downhill USC rushing attack.

3 ‘Dores Down for Garcia?: 5th-year redshirt senior quarterback Stephen Garcia has been kryptonite, for you music buffs, against Vanderbilt over his career at USC. Garcia is 2-0 as a starter against Vanderbilt, completing 73.6% of his passes (53-72), 667 passing yards (334 per game) and a 4 (TD)-to-1(INT) ratio, per The Spurs & Feathers. Remember last year in Nashville, Carolina rattled off 21 unanswered points to win 21-7 as Garcia put up huge numbers, 31-39, 335 passing yards and two TDs, per ESPN. Vanderbilt understands that Garcia has enjoyed past success against them, but the Commodores also see on videotape this year that Garcia has struggled early in games. So if the ‘Dores can dictate down & distance and Garcia cannot loosen up the Vandy defense’s bottleneck of Lattimore then Garcia’s unblemished record versus Vanderbilt might be in jeopardy Saturday night.

Third-Down Conversion Dilemma: One thing these two SEC East rivals have in common involves third downs. Vanderbilt ranks 116th out of 120 teams in FBS regarding 3rd-down conversion percentage. The Commodores have converted 10/41 third-down conversion chances (24%) through three games. Hooray for USC right? Wrong! Carolina is one of the worst teams in FBS in 3rd-down conversion rate defense ranking 110th out of 120 teams. USC has allowed opponents to convert 23/45 (51%) opportunities. Somebody has to win this key battle Saturday night, and my guess is USC. Vanderbilt is one of the worst Pass Efficiency teams (ranks 102nd) and also has allowed a high number of sacks (10) to the opposition, per NCAA. If USC can reverse its Secondary misfortunes and 3rd-down conversion defense then Carolina wins Saturday night.

USC/Vanderbilt Tidbits:

• Stephen Garcia became just the third quarterback in USC history to eclipse the 7,000 passing yards plateau in a career, per The Spurs & Feathers.

• The last time USC started a season 3-0 (2007 & 2010) the Gamecocks lost their fourth game of the season (at LSU in 2007 & at Auburn in 2010), per The Spurs & Feathers.

• Carolina last started a year 4-0 back in 2001, per The Spurs & Feathers.

• With a win over UGA & Navy, Steve Spurrier won back-to-back three-point games for the first time in 258 college career games, per The State.

• USC has won 15 of 17 home football games, and over the last three years, has compiled an 18-4 home field advantage at Williams-Brice Stadium.

• Carolina owns a 16-4 all-time record versus Vanderbilt, including a 7-2 mark in Columbia. Steve Spurrier is 16-2 all-time versus Vanderbilt.

• Marcus Lattimore has multiple three-touchdown game performances, per ESPN.

Spurspective's Prediction: USC defeats Vanderbilt 30-20.

My next blog will be posted on Saturday morning when I will list my top ten college football games for week four and football recruits visiting USC for the Navy game.

Go Gamecocks!

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