Friday, October 28, 2011

Five Keys to USC Victory on Rocky Top

Fresh off of a bye week, #14 South Carolina travels up to Knoxville on Saturday for an SEC Eastern division tilt with the Tennessee Volunteers. The trek up to Rocky Top has somewhat been a Rocky Horror Show for the Gamecocks since joining the SEC in 1992. The match-up between the two divisional rivals will be the 30th in the series, which dates back to 1903. UT is 14-1 all-time against the Gamecocks in Knoxville. Do you know which USC coach owns the lone victory? If you answered Steve Spurrier, you are correct. Spurrier led Carolina to its first & only win in Neyland Stadium in SOS’ inaugural season, 2005, when Josh Brown connected on a 49-yard field goal late in the game. Since that game, these two teams have evenly split the last six contests. Last year in Columbia, Alshon Jeffrey’s 70-yard touchdown catch broke a 24-24 tie game early in the fourth quarter. The Gamecocks went on to beat Tennessee 38-24. In 2009, when USC last visited Rocky Top, the Gamecocks fell behind in the first quarter after two consecutive fumbles on USC’s first two possessions put Carolina in an early 14-0 deficit. UT would turn another USC miscue into a touchdown and send South Carolina home with a 31-13 loss. This year, the two teams enter the game with their superstars sidelined with injuries and lots of questions surrounding each team’s offense. Let’s take a look at five keys that could impact USC’s chances to win this football game.

Expect the Unexpected where both offenses are concerned. Tennessee named former Northwestern HS star, Justin Worley, as its starting quarterback. The Rock Hill, SC native unexpectedly entered the game last week against Alabama in the fourth quarter when starter Matt Simms was pulled due to ineffectiveness. Worley was expected to redshirt this season, but with the injury to Tyler Bray three weeks ago and the backup, Matt Simms, demonstrating an inability to lead the Volunteers, the UT coaching staff decided to burn the redshirt on Worley. The Gamecocks do not have any film on Worley, as he did not attempt to throw a pass versus Alabama. IMHO, Tennessee will try and establish an early run game to take the pressure off of Worley, who will be making his first career start. Even though Worley was the Gatorade Player of the Year in South Carolina last year, he has never played a full game against an SEC defense. UT’s coaching staff had no other choices after Simms’ dismal performance versus LSU & BAMA. If Worley was making a half-way decent impression on the UT coaching staff post-Bray injury, then Worley would have gotten significantly more practice reps prior to the LSU game two weeks ago. UT is desperate for a win (0-4, SEC record), so expect the Volunteers to throw some trick plays at the Gamecocks to try and generate some momentum on offense and place Worley in situations where he can make high percentage passes to gain some confidence and avoid turnovers.

Frustrate the freshman quarterback is the plan for the South Carolina front seven Saturday night. USC coaches Ellis Johnson, Lorenzo Ward and Brad Lawing have had two weeks to prepare their top ten defense (#7 overall), yielding less than 278 total yards per game, for an anemic Volunteers offense. UT has lost its top two playmakers, WR Justin Hunter & Tyler Bray, which comprised a UT aerial attack that chucked the ball up & down the field about 40-plus times a game. Ever since starting QB Tyler Bray suffered a broken thumb versus UGA three weeks ago, Tennessee has tried to establish a physical running attack with not much success against the likes of LSU & Alabama. If Carolina can negate the Volunteers rushing attack and force UT into second & third long distances, then the USC front four of Clowney, Robertson, Ingram and Taylor can pin their ears back and make life miserable for the Rock Hill native in his first start in the SEC. Carolina has registered 15 sacks on the season, third in the SEC, and the idea of facing a true freshman under center should have the sack masters (Ingram, Clowney & Taylor) licking their chops! When forced to throw the football, the Volunteers will face a treacherous task against the nation’s #1 ranked Pass Defense. The Gamecocks are surrendering less than 134 yards per game.

USC’s offensive identity has questions coming out of the bye week. This will be the first game without superstar runningback Marcus Lattimore lining up behind the USC quarterback. Since the Navy game, USC’s foes have stacked the box (8-9 defenders near the line of scrimmage) to shut down Lattimore. Now it will be interesting to see how opposing teams defend Carolina’s offense without Lattimore as part of the equation. True freshman Brandon Wilds steps out of Lattimore’s shadows and into the spotlight. Wilds has played in all seven games this season but has not figured as prominently as the Blythewood, SC native will post-Lattimore injury. Will the Gamecocks be pass-happy (40-plus pass attempts), balanced (50/50 run-pass ratio) or rush heavy (greater than 50% running plays)? I expect All-American WR Alshon Jeffrey to be featured more prominently along with WR Bruce Ellington and TE Justice Cunningham. The Wildcock formation and the Emory & Henry formations allow USC to mask some of the deficiencies of the o-line after the season ending injury to tackle Kyle Nunn. The lack of depth on the offensive line has surfaced in the rigors of the SEC; thus, the USC rushing totals have significantly declined since the Navy game. I am going out on a limb and saying the play calling will lean more towards the pass unless USC’s o-line has significantly upgraded its blocking ability in the off week.

Force turnovers and punish Tennessee for mistakes with positive point production especially in the red zone. UT has only lost a total of ten turnovers the entire season but is becoming more turnover prone, especially in the last two games (three INTs & one fumble). South Carolina has been very opportunistic on defense this year in forcing turnovers. USC is second in the FBS in Turnovers Gained with 24 (14 interceptions & ten fumble recoveries). Ten of the interceptions have come over the last three games where Carolina’s defense has not faced a polished passing quarterback, i.e. Justin Worley, UT starting quarterback on Saturday night. Remember Worley has never attempted a collegiate pass, and he will be facing a defense that likes to get up the field and pressure the quarterback, so we will see if the young gun slinger wilts in the face of a tenacious pass rush and puts the football in jeopardy Saturday night.

Special Teams needs to be superior on Saturday night. South Carolina Field Goal Kicker Jay Wooten is 4-6 on FG Attempts this year north of 40 yards. USC is the only school in the nation that has not attempted a field goal inside of 40 yards, per the Spurs and Feathers. Traditionally, the games on Rocky Top have been close over the last decade (exception 2009, 31-13 UT win), and Carolina’s only two overtime games in the history of the program have occurred in Neyland Stadium, a 23-20 loss in 2003 and a 27-24 defeat in 2007. Winning the field position game and converting scoring opportunities will be at a premium on Saturday night, so both Wooten and Punter Joey Scribner-Howard will need to have strong performances if Carolina is to emerge victorious from what I expect to be a lackluster offensive performance by both squads.

Spurspective’s Prediction: The Road Warriors continue their streak away from the cockpit, USC 21-13.

My next blog will be Saturday when I post my Top Ten Games of the Week.

Go Gamecocks!

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