Five Keys for a South Carolina Victory over Arkansas

South Carolina travels halfway across the country into the Ozark Mountains to face an 8^th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks squad.  This will be the 20^th edition of this interdivisional match-up since both teams joined the SEC Conference together in 1992.  The Razorbacks hold a 12-7 advantage in this series with South Carolina – its permanent opponent from the SEC East Division.  When hosting the Gamecocks within the Natural State’s borders, the Hawgs own a 7-2 record.  The last Gamecocks win against Arkansas in Fayetteville was 2005, when Steve Spurrier, in his inaugural season at South Carolina, led the Gamecocks to a close 14-10 victory.  Arkansas has won four of the last five contests in this series, including the last two games.  Last year in the cockpit, the Razorbacks crushed USC 41-20 behind a strong running attack with RB Kniles Davis and a superior passing attack led by former Arkansas QB Ryan Mallet (now in the NFL with New England).

Saturday night’s top ten match-up between the Gamecocks and Razorbacks is not garnering much attention around the country since it kicks off roughly 45 minutes ahead of the game of the century between LSU and Alabama.  While not many eyes outside of the states of Arkansas and South Carolina will watch 75 percent of this game, both squads understand the significance of winning this contest, especially USC.  Let’s take a look at five crucial keys to South Carolina earning their first victory in the Natural State since 2005.

Avoid slow start conundrum and get out of the gates fast, Gamecocks!  South Carolina has made a habit of falling behind its opponents.  In fact, in eleven consecutive games USC has not scored first.  The last time Carolina had an early lead was the 2010 Troy game.  Arkansas is an explosive and powerful offensive team, and the Gamecocks cannot afford to get too far behind early in this game and become one-dimensional (pass happy).  The Razorbacks have scored at least 29 points in every single game, except the Alabama game where the Bobby Petrino-led Razorbacks only mustered 14 points.  Arkansas has faced first- half double digit deficits on the road against Ole Miss & Vanderbilt in its last two games.  The Razorbacks came back to win both games but only by a combined eight points.  Now both of these teams have gotten off to notoriously slow starts this season, so at least one team will get the chance to end this poor habit.  Let’s hope it is South Carolina.

Run Wilds and Shaw early & often against a suspect Arkansas defense.  The Arkansas Razorbacks currently rank 89^th in Rushing Defense, surrendering 188 rushing yards per game through eight games.  Since playing teams with a pulse, the Razorbacks have yielded the following Rushing Totals:
Auburn - 291 rushing yards
Texas A&M - 381 rushing yards
Alabama - 197 rushing yards
Ole Miss – 151 rushing yards
Vanderbilt – 222 rushing yards

The Gamecocks enter the contest with the 23^rd ranked Rushing Offense and Carolina has eclipsed the 200-yard rushing mark versus five opponents, three of which are SEC defenses:  UGA, UK & UT.  Arkansas has yet to limit an SEC offense to less than151 total rushing yards this year and, on average, have given up 248.5 yards rushing to BCS conference opponents.  The Read Option that USC utilizes with Connor Shaw on the keeper or either Brandon Wilds or Kenny Miles finding cutback lanes and running between the tackles will also keep the Time of Possession in Carolina’s favor.  After watching the Vanderbilt/Arkansas game last Saturday, I fully anticipate USC Run Game Coordinator/OL Coach Shawn Elliot and USC QB Coach G.A. Mangus to specifically emphasize to Spurrier that the Zone Read Option play be Carolina’s best weapon to defeat the Razorbacks.

Avoid Costly Turnovers that result in cheap Arkansas touchdowns.  South Carolina has lost 19 turnovers on the season, including five in the last two road games against Mississippi State (two INTs) and Tennessee (two fumbles & one INT).  South Carolina cannot afford to be careless with the football on the Gamecocks side of the 50-yard line and give Arkansas a short field for its quick strike offense.  Once the Razorbacks get inside opponent’s Red Zone, the Razorbacks go “Hog Wild” with a 91% success rate, scoring on 32 of 35 opportunities.

Collapse the pocket when Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson drops back to pass.  The Razorbacks have yielded 17 total sacks this season with a rebuilt o-line.  USC has registered 16 sacks on the season, which ranks middle of the pack in the SEC, but three-fifths of those sacks came against Vanderbilt & Kentucky.  Ellis Johnson & Brad Lawing more than likely have implored all week long that the front four must get pressure on Wilson.  Ellis Johnson is not a gambler and will not take too many chances with all-out blitzes on Saturday night, so it is paramount that the USC d-line of Clowney, Ingram, Taylor and Robertson get constant pressure on Wilson a majority of the night.  Vanderbilt last week sacked Wilson three times and hit the Arkansas junior quarterback unmercifully all game long.  IMHO, the Gamecocks d-line is head & shoulders better than Vanderbilt’s d-line and will handle the Razorbacks up front and make Wilson uncomfortable for four quarters.

Force Turnovers and make Arkansas pay for their mistakes with the football.  Arkansas has lost twelve turnovers (nine fumbles & three INTs) on the season.  Wilson does not throw many interceptions so, IMHO, the Gamecocks are going to have to cause fumbles to continue to be an opportunistic defense. To achieve these turnovers, the Carolina defense must sack Wilson and force the quarterback to fumble the football.  If USC is fortunate enough to force turnovers on Arkansas’ side of the 50-yard line, then Carolina must score touchdowns!  South Carolina cannot expect to win this game kicking field goals.  If the Gamecocks stop troops can force three-plus turnovers then I guarantee a victory!  Less than two turnovers and this game becomes a very difficult challenge for South Carolina to win.

Spurspective Prediction:  Since losing at home to Arkansas last season, the Gamecocks have won 10 of its last 11 regular season games (six consecutive on the road).  In order for USC to win this game the total points scored must be less than 50 points.  I like the Road Warriors to be in seventh heaven Saturday night, USC 24-23.