Friday, November 18, 2011

Five Keys to a South Carolina Victory over The Citadel

It seems as soon as South Carolina beat Florida last Saturday that USC fans immediately turned their attention to that team from the northwest corridor of the Palmetto State. As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend!” Granted, The Citadel is a middle of the pack Southern Conference team, sub-.500 record and just a speed bump in the road towards the November 26th showdown in prime time on ESPN. But the last time the Bulldogs walked out of Williams-Brice Stadium, The Citadel upset South Carolina 38-35 as Bulldogs quarterback Jack Douglas scored the game-winning touchdown with 22 seconds left to play. The milestone victory for former Citadel Head Football Coach Charlie Taffe and his Bulldogs squad shocked the college football world back on that October 20th afternoon inside the cockpit. Fast forward 21 years and the same two teams meet again at high Noon on Saturday as USC tries to extract revenge for the humbling experience the South Carolina program endured more than 20 years ago. This contest will be the 50th meeting in the series between the in-state schools with South Carolina holding a series edge, 39-7-3. Here are SPURspective’s five keys to a Gamecocks victory against The Citadel on Saturday.

South Carolina needs to take control early and score first! Thirteen straight opponents have jumped out to a quick lead versus USC. The last time Carolina enjoyed a lead was against Troy last year. USC is 9-4 in these contests. Striking quickly would fuel the crowd’s angst in getting up on an opponent early and never taking the proverbial foot off the gas for an entire 60 minutes of football. If USC could get an early double digit lead then the Gamecocks could force the Bulldogs into deviating from an offensive comfort zone (triple option) and become more of a pass heavy offense that would then unleash the Carolina pass rush on The Citadel quarterback.

The Gamecocks must establish the running game from the initial snap and show its Southern Conference guest how “physical football” is played in the SEC. The Gamecocks average a little more than 191 yards rushing per game, while the Bulldogs yield a little less than 160 yards rushing per game. A steady dose of Shaw, Wilds, Miles and Ellington might be enough to tire the Bulldogs, keep the clock moving and accelerate the focus to next Saturday’s post-Thanksgiving Day match-up with in-state rival Clemson. Keep in mind that South Carolina under Steve Spurrier is 16-0 when the Gamecocks rush for 200 yards or more.

A dominant, disciplined defense will help USC coast to victory over its in-state rival from the Port City. The Gamecocks are a top 10 defense (7th in FBS) and should benefit abundantly from already playing a triple option team (Navy) earlier in the year. It should take the Gamecocks defense at least a quarter of play to get up to speed of seeing a triple option offense run as efficiently as the Bulldogs will execute their offense. It is just too hard to simulate the precision & speed of a triple option offense in practice with a scout team in less than a week. But with the experience and preparation from the Navy game, the Gamecocks defense should get acclimated much quicker to The Citadel triple option offense. The Bulldogs are averaging 291 rushing yards per game and 34 passing yards per game. One factor that will determine USC’s defensive success is minimizing positive yardage on 1st & 10 for The Citadel.

An opportunistic South Carolina defense should force some mistakes by a Citadel team that has lost 21 turnovers. The Bulldogs have lost 14 fumbles and thrown seven interceptions. South Carolina’s defense has an affinity for gaining turnovers this year. Through 10 games the Gamecocks have set a new bench mark, 29, for turnovers gained during the Steve Spurrier era. The old record was 27 set back in 2008. IMHO, the Gamecocks should be able to increase that total versus The Citadel, as Ellis Johnson’s stop troops set their sights on the school record (39 in 1987) for turnovers forced. The Gamecocks are averaging just less than three turnovers gained per game.

Progress in the Passing Game would be priority 1-A heading into next weekend’s showdown with Clemson. The Citadel is ranked 14th in FCS Pass Defense allowing 171 passing yards per game. The Bulldogs have only intercepted five passes. Spurrier has to continue to evolve Connor Shaw’s progression as a starting quarterback in the SEC Conference. Remember Shaw has started six games this year and Carolina is (5-1) in those six games. Against SEC competition Shaw is completing slightly below 64% of his pass attempts, which is good for third place in the SEC behind McCarron (Alabama) and Lee (LSU). Shaw executed a beautiful pass to Ace Sanders last week in the fourth quarter in the clutch, which set up the field goal. Shaw is a dual-threat quarterback, which means he can run and pass equally efficiently. Shaw is the second leading rusher among SEC quarterbacks only trailing the leader by 15 yards. If the Gamecocks are running the football with effectiveness then I anticipate Spurrier unleashing the passing attack the OBC has craved all year long.

SPURspective’s Prediction: Gamecocks spank their annual in-state FCS opponent, USC 42-14.

My next blog will be posted Saturday morning with my top 10 games of week 12.

Go Gamecocks!

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