Monday, January 23, 2012

USC Men’s Basketball – Wins & Losses Bottom Line

In our second installment of the Darrin Horn Era, we’ll take a look at the fourth year head coach’s win/loss record versus non-conference opponents, versus Southeastern Conference competition, Horn’s SEC Tournament record and post-season performance. Upward mobility in the SEC is always challenging and generally coaches are given a four to five year window to turn around a fledgling program upon arrival. The first task of any new coach is to upgrade its talent on campus. By & large Horn’s recruiting classes, especially his 2010 group, have been judged as improvements in changing the DNA of the Gamecocks basketball program. I discussed this topic in my first installment. If you missed it here is a link to the first installment of this three-part series:

USC Recruiting

The second benchmark of any program, and the single most important, IMHO, is win/loss record. Under Head Coach Darrin Horn, the Gamecocks have compiled a 58-52 overall record in three-and-a-half seasons. A disparaging sign for a coach entering his fourth year in charge of a turning around the fortunes of a college basketball program is to be facing a third sub-.500% season at this juncture in his tenure on the job. The big, red heron that raises red flags is that of Horn’s 58 career victories while at South Carolina, 36% (21) came in his initial year, when he inherited players like Devan Downey, Zam Frederick, Dominique Archie, Mike Holmes and Sam Muldrow. Horn’s seasonal win total in Columbia has declined each season since the former Western Kentucky University Head Coach has been at the helm of the USC men’s basketball program.

Here is a breakdown of Horn’s win/loss record at South Carolina:
2008-09: 21-10 (SEC record: 10-6)
Signature Wins: at #19 Baylor (85-84), #24 Florida (70-69), at #24 Kentucky (78-77)
Bad Losses: at College of Charleston (82-80, OT), Tennessee (86-70)

2009-10: 15-16 (SEC record: 6-10)
Signature Wins: Richmond (76-58), #1 Kentucky (68-62), at #19 Vanderbilt (77-73)
Bad Losses: at Wofford (68-61), at #14 Tennessee (79-53), at UGA (66-61), Mississippi State (76-63)

2010-11: 14-16, (SEC record: 5-11)
Signature Wins: Clemson (64-60), #22 Vanderbilt (83-75, OT), at Florida (72-69)
Bad Losses: at Ohio State (79-57), at Furman (91-75), Boston College (85-70), Auburn (79-64), at #23 Vanderbilt (78-60), #17 Florida (79-60), at #22 Kentucky (90-59), at Georgia (64-48)

2011-12: 8-10, (SEC record: 0-4)
Signature Wins: at Clemson (58-55)
Bad Losses: at Elon (58-53), Tennessee State (64-63), vs #1 UNC (87-62), Vanderbilt (67-57), Florida (79-65), Auburn (63-52)

So before we look at records versus competition, here is a staggering thought. Horn and his squad quite possibly could begin SEC league play this year, 0-10, as the Gamecocks play six games (Alabama, at Ole Miss, at Florida, Kentucky, at Tennessee and at Arkansas) where USC will be considered the underdogs before hosting Georgia at the CLA on February 15th.

Non-Conference Record:
Horn’s Non-Conference record is 37-17 in three-plus seasons. He has one victory over a ranked opponent (#19 Baylor in his first season, 85-84) on the road. His record against BCS Conference competition is 4-12 with two of those wins coming against an unranked Clemson team last year, 64-60, at the CLA and this season at Clemson, 58-55. His fourth victory against a BCS-level opponent was against South Florida 69-66 in a tournament two years ago. His average margin of victory against BCS conference opponents is 2.75 points/game. In contrast, USC’s average margin of loss under Horn versus BCS Conference competition is 12.3 points/game. Horn has a single win at the Colonial Life Arena against a BCS-level opponent in three-plus years: Clemson (2010, 64-60).

Another disturbing trend under Horn is the annual loss to a Southern Conference opponent on the road. An SEC school, even with subpar talent like USC’s, should never lose a single game to a non-BCS school each year like College of Charleston (2008), Wofford (2009), Furman (2010) and Elon (2011). The inability to win on the road against inferior competition reflects poor coaching and inexcusable execution of a game plan.

Bottom line: Darrin Horn has “padded” his win total (33) versus lesser opponents to the tune of .057% winning percentage. Most of his wins have come at the CLA against the likes of S.C. State, Furman, Southeast Louisiana, Western Carolina and Radford. Let’s remember the Gamecocks lost to Tennessee State this season at home!

Conference Record:
Horn’s Southeastern Conference record is 21-31 in three-plus seasons. Horn won ten conference games in his first season, when the SEC East Division was not very good and the conference as a whole was mediocre. Since year one, Horn’s teams have compiled an 11-25 record without winning a conference game yet this season. In the last 16 SEC Conference games (regular season), the Gamecocks are 2-14. During that span of games, the average loss is 14.5 points/game, while the two wins came against SEC West bottom feeders, LSU & Ole Miss, last season by an average of 7.5 points/game.

The Gamecocks have not won an SEC game since February 22, 2011 at home against Ole Miss, 79-73, and currently own a seven-game regular season conference losing streak. The last time Horn’s Gamecocks defeated a ranked SEC team on the road was March 6, 2010 at #19 Vanderbilt, 77-73 and that was with Dave Odom players (Downey, Muldrow, Frederick and Raley-Ross). Under the Horn regime, the Gamecocks have not defeated Mississippi State (0-3; regular season and 0-1; SEC Tournament) or Tennessee (0-6). Against the top four teams in the SEC East Division (UK, UF, VU and UT), Carolina is 9-18 and in the midst of a nine-game losing streak to those four teams. Against the top four teams in the SEC West (Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi St and Ole Miss), South Carolina is 5-7. Against the rest of the SEC (Georgia, Auburn and LSU), the Gamecocks are 7-6.

Bottom line: Clearly, the last two seasons, the SEC is getting better while South Carolina is getting worse! The Gamecocks are not competing against the upper echelon of the Southeastern Conference, while just treading water (one game over .500) against similar conference competition.

Southeastern Conference Tournament Record:
In three SEC Conference Basketball tournament appearances, the Gamecocks are 0-3 where the average loss is 10 points/game. In two of the three losses, Mississippi State (2009) & Ole Miss (2011), the Gamecocks never really put up much of a fight. In the opening-round loss to Alabama in 2010, the Gamecocks unraveled in the second half surrendering a double-digit lead before losing by five points.

Bottom line: The Gamecocks have not won a single game in the SEC Tournament under Darrin Horn and two of the three losses have been by double digits and greater than ten points.

Post Season:
Under Darrin Horn, the Gamecocks have participated in one post-season tournament game. In 2009, the Gamecocks hosted Davidson (Southern Conference opponent) at the CLA in an opening round NIT game and lost 70-63. Horn’s predecessors, Fogler and Odom, had the Gamecocks in the NCAA Tournament by their fourth year. Barring a miracle, this team will not see postseason play for a fourth straight year under Darrin Horn.

Bottom line: The lack of postseason play during Horn’s tenure defines the demise of this program the last two-plus years. Even under Odom, the Gamecocks participated in multiple NIT tournaments and won back-to-back NIT titles in 2005 & 2006. Coach Horn has demonstrated he cannot guide his team to postseason play when facing BCS-level competition. Remember when Horn’s Western Kentucky University team reached the Sweet 16 back in 2008; the Hilltoppers (#12 seed) defeated two non-BCS schools, (#5 seed) Drake University & (#13 seed) San Diego State before losing to UCLA.

In the last installment of this three-part series, SPURspective will list some possible candidates to replace Darrin Horn and what it will cost South Carolina to replace Darrin Horn at season’s end.

Go Gamecocks!

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