Pre-Season Top 25, SEC Predictions and USC’s 2011 Expectations

College football fans have different opinions regarding pre-season polls. I love pre-season polls! Why? It provides fodder during the dog days of summer, while radio and television pundits bloviate all off-season why Oklahoma should be ranked #1 versus Alabama or Oregon. It generates a buzz until the BCS poll makes its debut. Yes, pre-season polls are largely based on returning players and how the teams finished the previous season. Being ranked in the pre-season does not always guarantee a successful season. Who knew last year that Cameron Newton would evolve into the dynamite player he turned out to be last year for Auburn University? Carolina begins the season ranked #12 per USA Today/Coaches Poll. Looking back at the last five years (2006-2010) of the USA Today/Coaches Poll, specifically #12, two teams occupied this position the last five years. Wisconsin and California occupied the #12 pre-season ranking up until this year. Only in 2006 (California #14) and in 2010 (Wisconsin #8) did either team finish ranked in the polls at year’s end. So the pre-season #12 ranking is either jinxed or maybe it’s the two universities that had a monopoly on the pre-season distinction that were unlucky. Carolina will get its chance Saturday night to live up to its lofty pre-season ranking and hopefully Spurrier and Company will still be relevant in the USA Today/Coaches Poll when it’s relevant – at the end of the season! So, without further delay, here is my pre-season Top 25, and we’ll see if I am headed to Vegas at season’s end. I doubt it!

SPURspective’s Pre-Season Top 25:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Boise State
4. Stanford
5. Oklahoma
6. LSU
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma State
9. South Carolina
10. Wisconsin
11. Texas A&M
12. Nebraska
13. Arkansas
14. Virginia Tech
15. Notre Dame
16. Michigan State
17. Mississippi State
18. Arizona State
19. Iowa
20. TCU
21. West Virginia
22. Florida
23. Texas
24. Brigham Young
25. Ohio State

SEC Projected Finish:
SEC East:
1. South Carolina
2. Florida
3. Tennessee
4. Georgia
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt
SEC West:
1. Alabama
2. Arkansas
3. LSU
4. Mississippi State
5. Ole Miss
6. Auburn

Conference Champion:
South Carolina

South Carolina 2011 Season Analysis: 11-1 (Regular season); 7-1 (SEC Regular Season)

This season is so pivotal to the continued progression of South Carolina’s football program. The SEC East is still tumultuous and down from years past. Florida has a new regime and the Gators’ personnel doesn’t match-up with a Pro-Style offense, and the numbers (player roster) are down as far as bodies. Tennessee is still rebuilding under Dooley, but there is young talent at quarterback, wide receiver and offensive line. The Volunteers are still lacking depth on defense and IMHO are a year away from contending. Georgia is the most-hyped team in college football every single year. Yes, QB Aaron Murray is a very good player, but where is his supporting cast on offense? Annually, all we hear about is how good UGA’s offensive line is or the Dawgs have the next great Herschel Walker standing in the wings ready to take the SEC by storm. Georgia will struggle on offense (no A.J. Green) and no proven receiver or running back threat. The defense should be better as long as the Nose Guard in the 3-4 defense stays healthy. Kentucky is replacing a lot of star power on offense (RB Locke, WR Cobb and QB Hartline) without a lot of proven players that have stepped up. The defense is still status quo in Lexington even with a new Defensive Coordinator (former USC DC Rick Minter). UK will have to win a lot of offensive shootouts. Vanderbilt, God love ‘em, is still Vanderbilt, occupying the cellar in the SEC East with a new head coach James Franklin (former Maryland Offensive Coordinator), who tries to turn the proverbial ship around in the Music City.
I predict USC to navigate through its SEC East schedule unblemished. There is no team in the SEC East who scares me right now. So 5-0 record versus divisional opponents.

Fortunately, the Gamecocks do not draw the top two teams (Alabama & LSU) out of the SEC West. The Gamecocks do travel to Mississippi State where Dan Mullen has raised expectations in Starkville. The offense is expected to be very good with lots of skilled players returning, but the defense is replacing 5 of 7 starters on the front seven. The Gamecocks will have to prepare for a heavy dose of the run game from the Bulldogs, but the MSU passing game is still a work in progress with Chris Relf. Carolina also treks to Fayette”nam” (aka Fayetteville) to take on Bobby Petrino’s high-octane Razorbacks’ offense directed by new quarterback Tyler Wilson. This is always the worst match-up on Carolina’s schedule yearly. The Razorbacks have a very explosive offense with several highly rated WRs. The Hawgs did experience a severe setback early in pre-season when the SEC’s returning rusher, Kniles Davis, broke his ankle and is out for the year. Arkansas is breaking in three new OL, a new running back and a new starting quarterback. Defense isn’t Arkansas’ strong suit, but it is improving. I don’t like USC’s chances versus Arkansas. The final SEC West opponent is defending National Champion Auburn Tigers. Auburn is the lone team in the SEC that Carolina has never been able to “claw out” a victory against since USC joined the SEC. That streak finally comes to a halt at Williams-Brice Stadium on October 1st. Carolina owes Auburn a little payback for the butt-kicking USC was given last year in the Georgia Dome.

I predict USC will go 2-1 versus its SEC West opponents with the single loss coming at Arkansas.

The non-conference schedule is very manageable. Fans of East Carolina, Navy, Citadel and Clemson, no disrespect to any of you, but Carolina’s talent is much superior at this point. Carolina will treat the Pirates like the Navy Seals handle Somali pirates---quickly dispatch of them! God bless the United States Military by the way!

Navy is probably the most challenging non-conference opponent on the schedule. Thankfully, the Midshipmen will be breaking in a new quarterback (Dobbs finally graduated), and the defense is replacing several starters as well. The Gamecocks will be coming off a border war down in Athens preceding the Navy match-up, so I anticipate a sluggish first half. The score will be closer than most expect, and the rushing totals of Navy will highly distort USC’s run defense the rest of the year. In the end, USC beats Navy in a game that I still question why Carolina scheduled.

The Citadel is a tune-up in between the Florida and Clemson games. Citadel fans, Sparky Woods isn’t coaching Carolina, the Bulldogs gave up the wishbone offense, and Jack Douglas will not be suiting up at quarterback for the Citadel. George H. W. Bush is not president, and 1990 seems like eons ago when the Bulldogs last beat Carolina. I smell a rout in this game a la Troy last year. NEXT!!

The annual rivalry game versus Clemson closes out the regular season. Last time I saw Tajh Boyd; former Gamecocks DE Cliff Matthews dropped $0.25 in the hip pocket of Clemson’s backup QB and rode him down to the ground like a horse ride outside of Wal-Mart. Clemson has supposedly installed a brand new offense, new flavor of the month offensive coordinator Chad Morris, and a bunch of highly recruited 5-star freshmen. The Gamecocks have hammered the Tigers the last two years and handed Dabo Swinney his two worst losses of his short coaching career. I expect a third straight win over Clemson and more than likely the absolute worst loss in the Swinney era at Clemson.

I predict a 4-0 record in the non-conference portion of our schedule.

Buckle up Gamecock fans because 2011 is going to be a very exciting season. Carolina finally has a legitimate two/three-deep depth chart, talent up and down the roster, two competent QB’s. This team is too talented to not succeed this season. If USC can avoid injuries along the offensive line, eliminate blown assignments in the Secondary, then an exceptional season is in reach and an apex that garnet and black fans have never experienced.
Best case scenario:
11-1 (BCS bowl berth & possibly BCS Championship game if USC wins SEC title game)
Worst case scenario: 8-4 (Gator Bowl)