Inside the Border Battle: Five Keys to Victory

USC opens its 20th season in the SEC on Saturday with its rival south of the border between the Hedges in Sanford Stadium. Carolina is 8-11 in SEC season openers (of the 19 SEC openers 16 have come against UGA) and 2-4 under Steve Spurrier in SEC openers. In those six years, Spurrier is 2-3 versus Georgia and 0-1 versus Vanderbilt (2008 lost 24-17). When the Gamecocks open SEC play in Athens, Carolina is 1-2 under Spurrier winning in 2007. USC’s average margin in two losses at UGA under Spurrier is three points (lost by two in 2005 & lost by four in 2009). USC won by four points, 16-12, in 2008. Carolina is looking to start 2-0 under Spurrier for the third time in seven years. 2007 USC began 2-0 before finishing 6-6. In 2010, Carolina began 2-0 en route to the SEC Eastern Division title before finishing 9-5. Historically, this early season match-up has been a barometer of success for both of these teams. When Carolina beats UGA, the Gamecocks generally enjoy success and when Carolina loses to Georgia the season usually goes south. So let’s take a look inside the key match-ups between these two SEC Eastern Division opponents.

1. Establish the Run Game: Carolina must go into this game with a mindset to run the football. Georgia will be adamant to avoid a Marcus Lattimore encore (37 carries/182 yards) in front of their home fans. UGA demonstrated improvement versus Boise State in defending the run but lost a key component to their defense when starting middle linebacker Alec Olgetree broke a bone in his right foot early in the game. The Bulldogs will be starting a walk-on in his place. Also, Georgia’s starting nose guard, Kwame Geathers, suffered a shoulder stinger versus BSU and missed practice through Wednesday nursing his injury. That leaves UGA with a JUCO transfer, John Jenkins, as the only true option at nose guard if Geathers can’t play. Jenkins has battled weight and conditioning since arriving in Athens in July. Carolina cannot get deterred if they find a lack of running room early in the game. Spurrier knows when USC runs the rock the Gamecocks have had tremendous success. I place the rushing total over 150 yards to be successful. Also, look for Stephen Garcia and Bruce Ellington to have chances to hurt the UGA defense with QB keepers on the Zone Read play. Lattimore will get his 100-plus yards rushing versus Georgia!

2. Dirty Murray’s Jersey: Last week against Boise State, UGA’s offensive line gave up six sacks with multiple blitzes and a straight four-man pass rush. Even though Carolina did not register a sack against ECU, the front four got pressure and QB hurries, especially in the second half. IMHO this is Clowney’s coming-out party. I don’t care who Georgia trots out at its Left Tackle position, Clowney will introduce himself A LOT to Aaron Murray on Saturday afternoon. If Carolina gets pressure with the front four, it will be a very long day on offense for UGA. I expect max protection (RB & TE stay into block on pass plays) and that may slow down the pass rush, but, more importantly, there will be fewer receivers running routes. Ellis Johnson will turn up the heat with blitz packages on Saturday to try and get Georgia’s offense rattled. I expect USC’s d-line to record at least six sacks and several QB pressures.

3. Avoid Special Teams Blunders: Remember in 2009 when UGA kickoff return man Brandon Boykin returned a 100-yard kickoff for TD that helped stake the Bulldogs to a 15-point lead? Carolina was atrocious on special teams in Athens two years ago, which basically cost them the game. I would implore USC to kick the ball out of bounds away from Boykin and let UGA have the ball at the Georgia 40-yard line. Georgia is offensively challenged. Let’s not give up easy touchdowns off of special teams’ lapses. If Carolina is bold enough to kick-off to Boykin, then the Gamecocks better tackle Boykin. Pooch kicking (instruct the kicker to pop the ball up to around the 30-yard line and allow your defenders to cover the kick-off easier) is even a better option than giving Boykin & UGA an opportunity to ignite momentum and change the course of the game.

4. USC Passing Accuracy: If UGA stacks the box with eight players (number of defenders within 5-8 yards of line of scrimmage) to stop Lattimore, then the spotlight turns to 5th year senior QB Stephen Garcia. Garcia will have plenty of chances to hit receivers downfield for big gains (20-plus yards downfield from line of scrimmage). Last week we saw a very vanilla passing game plan from Carolina. There were a lot of deep throws downfield but not a lot of screens, slants or intermediate routes. This week, SOS opens up the playbook and challenges Garcia and the WRs to loosen up the UGA run defense enough until the Dawgs are forced to divert defenders to the passing game. If Carolina can consistently complete passes early in the game that will open more running lanes for Lattimore to exploit a possibly tired and soft UGA defense in the second half.

5. Endure Emotional Start: The red & silver will be fired up at the outset of this game. Sanford Stadium will be an emotionally charged atmosphere, as this game is being pegged as a do-or-die game regarding Richt’s future tenure at UGA. The Gamecocks must survive the first ten minutes of the first quarter without any mental mistakes that could lend the Bulldogs more optimism. Even though UGA lost last weekend on a neutral field this is a new season within the SEC, and these two teams were the pre-season favorites of sports media in picking an SEC Eastern Division winner. The added pressure to win this game is evident amongst Georgia players and coaches, but if USC executes and avoids turnovers, then the last 30 minutes of the football game comes down to coaching and players. Advantage Gamecocks!!

Facts for this game:

1. USC has nine turnovers in its last two games (five versus FSU in the Peach Bowl/four versus ECU).

2. Georgia has never opened the season against two Top 25 ranked teams
back-to-back.

3. Georgia QB Aaron Murray is 6-8 as a starter at UGA.

4. USC has only beaten UGA back-to-back once (2000 at Williams-Brice, the Quincey Carter debacle and then in 2001 at UGA 14-9 with the last-second Phil Petty to Brian Scott TD pass) since the SEC expanded in 1992.

5. Since the SEC expanded in 1992, UGA has started the season 0-2 twice. In 1993, the Bulldogs lost to Carolina and Tennessee. Then in 1996, Georgia lost back-to-back to Southern Miss and USC to begin the season.

6. In the last two games, UCF in the 2010 bowl game and Boise State, UGA is 5-27 (18.5%) on Third Down Conversions, has given up nine sacks, and Murray has a 2/3 (TD/Interception) ratio.

7. And finally for you Vegas insiders, per Greg Roberts, during the Mark Richt regime at Georgia - when playing at home and coming off a double-digit loss, Georgia has never covered the spread!

My prediction: USC 37-17

I will post my Week Two top 10 college football games to watch on Saturday morning.

Go Gamecocks!!!