USC/Auburn Numbers Crunch, SEC Power Index, USC QB Dilemma & Stock ↑↓

The USC/Auburn contest will be part of a day-night-TV-doubleheader broadcast nationally on CBS at 3:30 EST. The defending national champions, Auburn, will travel to William-Brice Stadium with confidence on their side. How so? Well, considering that Auburn has not lost to South Carolina since the Great Depression Era, 1933, why would the Tigers from the Plains fear a trip to Columbia, SC? Auburn is the lone team that USC has not beaten since the SEC last expanded back in 1992, and the Tigers enjoy a current six-game win streak against the Gamecocks. Steve Spurrier is 0-4 versus Auburn since taking over the reins at South Carolina back in November 2004. In the Gamecocks’ four losses, Auburn has averaged nearly 41 points per game against the OBC’s garnet & black defenses, while the Gamecocks have managed a meager 17 points per game versus Auburn. The cheatin’ Chiziks will bring a Cam Newton-less offense to the cockpit on Saturday, but with Gus Malzahn still engineering the high-octane Auburn offense, Ellis Johnson & crew will have their hands full.
Auburn is still an effective offense but not nearly as potent. Auburn ranks 78th in total offense, averaging nearly 374 yards of total offense. The Tigers have scored 17 TDs, but the defending national champs are scoring one less touchdown per game this year versus 2010. In contrast, Auburn is allowing one more touchdown per game on defense in 2011 versus last year. Auburn has won 68 consecutive games when scoring 30 points or more, per The State. Clemson held Auburn to 24 points, only a Field Goal in the second half. Auburn has given up seven sacks through three games and the Tigers protect the football, as well, only committing three turnovers, per NCAA. Auburn is 11/12 (92%) on Red Zone opportunities, ranking 24th in the NCAA, (ball inside opponents’ 20-yard line) and have scored seven touchdowns and four field goals. Conversely, Carolina has allowed opponents to score 12/13 chances (92%) inside the red zone, which ranks dead last in the SEC and 105th in the NCAA. On the flip side, the Gamecocks’ offense has been ineffective in the Red Zone scoring only 71% (10/14 chances) of the time with ten touchdowns (nine rushing TDs and one Pass TD) and one field goal. The Auburn Red Zone defense ranks 80th in the NCAA, giving up 15/17 scoring drives – an 88% clip. The Tigers’ defense is surrendering 478 yards per game, 227 yards rushing per game and 31 points per game.

It appears going into this game that both offenses will enjoy some success. I think the key match-up will be the USC defensive line against a young, inexperienced Auburn offensive line. The numbers favor a Gamecocks home victory on Saturday, but past history against Auburn definitely leaves doubt in my mind. If USC was producing offensive numbers like it did in 2010 then I would be very confident in choosing USC to win, but after watching Garcia & company sputter against Vanderbilt, I have my reservations in choosing Carolina to remain unbeaten. Oh well, wait until Friday to see my keys to the game and USC/Auburn prediction.

SEC Power Index:
1. LSU – The Bayou Bengals defeated three ranked teams on the road in the month of September.
2. Alabama – The Crimson Tide looks like another hard-nosed mistake-free Nick Saban team.
3. Florida – The Gators are explosive on offense, but QB John Brantley has yet to be tested.
4. South Carolina – The Gamecocks have beaten three teams ranked in the top 55 NCAA defenses.
5. Arkansas – Petrino’s offense is explosive and BAMA makes a lot of offenses look out of sync.
6. Georgia – UGA has a lot of nice young weapons on offense, and the schedule is very manageable.
7. Mississippi State – MSU lost a heartbreaker at Auburn, and the hangover has lingered for two weeks.
8. Auburn – The Tigers are battling inexperience and injuries as they try to replace 18 of 22 starters from 2010.
9. Tennessee – UT suffered a devastating injury when WR Justin Hunter tore his ACL against Florida two weeks ago. Dooley & Co. need to develop a running game fast so defenses stay honest.
10. Vanderbilt – The Commodores defense is legitimate, but the offense looks spurious!
11. Kentucky – Don’t worry UK fans, basketball practice begins in a few weeks and then Big Blue Nation can exact some revenge for a discouraging football campaign.
12. Ole Miss – Houston Nutt may as well put the For Sale sign out in the front yard pronto!

USC Quarterback Turnaround?: If Stephen Garcia is to lead Carolina to a possible SEC Championship this year then the USC coaches must simplify the playbook for the 5th-year senior. I call for more slant routes, bubble screens and regular screen passes. Quit trying to force the football down the field so much! Garcia is at his worst trying to complete a pass greater than 20-plus yards. Per Tony Barhhardt of the Atlanta-Journal Constitution, Stephen Garcia has thrown 38 interceptions in 39 career games at USC. Garcia is not a pocket passer like Stanford’s Andrew Luck or Boise State’s Kellen Moore. Garcia is at his best when he is making quick throws (less than four seconds) and involved in the running game. Per ESPN, when Garcia runs the Zone Read Option, the Tampa, FL native completes 71% of his passes. So the key to build up a struggling USC quarterback’s confidence ASAP---is quick, short passes and include Garcia early in the rushing game plans.

Stock ↑ & Stock ↓:

Four teams trending up:
1. #13 Clemson University
2. #19 Michigan University
3. #24 University of Illinois
4. #16 University of South Florida

Four teams trending down:
1. Miami
2. Maryland
3. N.C State
4. Boston College

Notice a pattern A-She-She?

My next blog will be posted Friday afternoon when Spurspective provides its five strategic successes for a USC victory and my Carolina/Auburn prediction.

Go Gamecocks!