The Gamecocks hit the road this weekend after enjoying the friendly confines of the cockpit for the last month. It was an interesting home stand, to say the least, as Carolina won three out of four games. I cannot say with 100% conviction that the Gamecocks enjoyed the home stand, because of the rollercoaster ride that Carolina endured over the last month. A nail biter versus Navy, a lackluster offensive performance versus Vanderbilt, the first loss of the season against Auburn, a quarterback quandary, a blowout win versus Kentucky, a press conference heist and Stephen Garcia’s dismissal from the program after failing a substance test, whew! It will be 35 days since Carolina won at Georgia in a wild shootout (45-42) with a 5th-year senior quarterback. Now Steve Spurrier and the 15th ranked Gamecocks travel to Starkville, MS and face a very hungry Mississippi State squad looking to breakthrough in the win column in SEC play.
This will be the 14th meeting between South Carolina and Mississippi State. South Carolina has won five straight contests against MSU since 2000 and holds the all-time edge in the series 7-6. Since his tenure at USC, Spurrier owns a 2-0 record against the Magnolia State’s version of Bulldogs. Let’s take a look at the five keys to the Gamecocks leaving Starkville 6-1 heading into a bye week.
The Shaw Show: In his first home start last week versus Kentucky, sophomore QB Connor Shaw completed 66% of his passes for 311 yards and four TDs. Shaw demonstrated the ability to make all of the required throws a quarterback has to make in a Spurrier offense. Unlike his first start against East Carolina (fumbled on first drive), Shaw did not commit a turnover. Shaw, the son of a high school coach in Georgia, commanded the offense with precision and validated Spurrier’s decision to replace Garcia with Shaw. If Carolina’s o-line can provide Shaw a pocket to make passes, then the newly minted Shaw era will remain undefeated. The Flowery Branch, GA native is clearly the owner of the keys to USC’s offense moving forward and now must prove to his teammates and coaches that he has the intangibles and mindset to manage this team on the road and prove to his detractors that he can lead Carolina to a victory in hostile territory in SEC country. Starting at quarterback on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium versus East Carolina in Charlotte is one thing, but winning in Starkville, MS against Mississippi State with the cowbells ringing in his ear is a whole other experience!
Dominant Defense: Since the start of the season when the Gamecocks stop troops surrendered 79 points in back-to-back games to ECU and UGA, the Carolina defenders have clamped down on the last four opponents giving up only 43 total points, just under eleven points per game. During the last 16 quarters, Carolina has forced 14 turnovers (ten INTs & four fumbles) giving USC 22 total forced turnovers on the year, which ties South Carolina with Rutgers for the FBS lead in Turnovers Gained, per NCAA. The Gamecocks have tallied 13 total sacks through six games. The front four has gotten tremendous pressure, allowing Ellis Johnson and Lorenzo Ward to drop seven defenders into pass defense, which forces the opposing QBs to make quick throws and, more times than not, place the ball in jeopardy of being intercepted by a Gamecocks defender. USC ranks second in FBS with 12 interceptions through six games. Mississippi State will test the perimeter of Carolina’s run defense, because, under Dan Mullen, the Bulldogs have rushed for 100-plus yards in 28 of 31 games, per Madduxsports. MSU averages a little more than 188 rushing yards per game, so USC’s run defense should expect a heavy dose of RB Vic Ballard & QB Chris Relf when Relf is in the ball game, but the MSU o-line has not lived up to expectations, especially against SEC defenses. Forcing the Bulldogs offense into 2nd & 3rd and long distances will allow the USC pass rushers to pin their ears back and attack the Bulldogs quarterback, whoever that may be. The Bulldogs have yet to name a starter at quarterback between senior Chris Relf (better run threat) and sophomore Tyler Russell (more accomplished passer). Last week at UAB, Mullen pulled starter, Relf, after being down at halftime 3-0, and inserted Russell, who led the Bulldogs to a 21-3 comeback win.
Run Latti-MORE: Last week against Kentucky, Marcus Lattimore had four yards rushing on two attempts by the end of the first quarter. The SEC’s leading rusher finished with a very pedestrian 102 yards on 22 rush attempts out of a variety of formations. I liked seeing Spurrier’s offensive game plan being creative with the Duncan, SC native in the Wildcock formation, taking direct snaps and running the option play on 4th & 3 as Shaw pitched to Lattimore for a first down run. Down in Athens, Georgia, the Heisman hopeful and former Byrnes HS product put the USC offense on his back and rushed for nearly 100 yards (94 to be exact) in the decisive final quarter. Since his 246-yard outburst against Navy, opposing defenses have stacked the box and clamped down on Lattimore, and the USC o-line has not blocked nearly as well as it did in the first three games of the season. Mississippi State is surrendering 160 rushing yards per game. It would be advantageous for Spurrier and Connor Shaw if the OBC were to scheme multiple plays to get the ball in Lattimore’s hands and take the pressure off Shaw to make plays in his first SEC road start. Remember that Carolina is undefeated (10-0) when Lattimore totes the rock 20-plus times a game. The game plan is simple – the more Latti-MORE carries the pigskin, the chances of South Carolina beating MSU increases exponentially.
Solid Special Teams: Bruce Ellington fumbled the opening kickoff against Kentucky last week, which led to a Kentucky field goal. The Gamecocks also fumbled two punts but were fortunate enough to recover both loose balls. Carolina’s punt returners (Sanders & Gilmore) and kickoff returners (Swearinger or Ellington) must not put the ball on the turf and provide MSU with short fields to execute their offense. Punter Joey Scribner-Howard must continue his steady punting and make the Bulldogs drive long distances (70-plus yards) for touchdowns against an improving Carolina defense, and as long as Kicker Jay Wooten is inside 50 yards, I feel confident in his ability to be a consistent three-point machine.
Fast Start: South Carolina has a dubious trend this season---looking up at an early deficit on the scoreboard every single game. It’s a morning start time in Starkville on Saturday (11:30 a.m. CST) so focus will be at a premium for the Gamecocks in such an early game. A hot start on offense would really give quarterback Connor Shaw a tremendous boost of confidence on the road. An early score might just be the wake-up call this Carolina offense needs to make it a long day for Mississippi State’s defense, which is under a new coordinator this season and allowing 20 points per game.
Spurspective’s Prediction: South Carolina nips the Dawgs, 34-30.
My next blog will be posted Saturday morning with my Top 10 games to watch for Week Seven.
Go Gamecocks!
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