Five Keys for a USC Victory over Kentucky

Since I last blogged, USC has a new starting quarterback and the sun has still risen all week long in Columbia, SC. The most obvious personnel decision was made Monday night, when Steve Spurrier announced, post-practice, that true sophomore Connor Shaw would replace Stephen Garcia at quarterback for the Gamecocks versus Kentucky. I was pulling for Garcia to turnaround his fortunes, but if Carolina is going to aspire to preseason goals then Spurrier could afford no more mulligans with his fifth-year senior quarterback. South Carolina’s season didn't end with a loss to Auburn. Was it discouraging? Yes! Did the loss derail USC’s chances to repeat as the SEC East representative in the Georgia Dome come early December? Nope! The Gamecocks still control their destiny in the SEC East race having already defeated UGA & Vanderbilt (divisional foes). Yes, our hopes of an undefeated season have come to a halt. Yes, our arch rivals in the Upstate are undefeated and smoked Auburn. All of USC’s preseason goals (I do not believe undefeated season was a realistic goal) are still attainable, but a loss to UK tomorrow at the cockpit would seriously derail the Gamecocks’ season. Let’s take a look at five factors that will determine the outcome of the divisional match-up Saturday afternoon.

Shawshank Redemption: Connor Shaw’s second start under center will be far less scrutinized then his first start earlier this season against ECU. When Spurrier made the surprise announcement back on September 1st, you would have thought the government was taking over healthcare (Oh wait! That already happened!) with all the public outrage by USC fans that the beloved Stephen Garcia would not start the 2011 season as the Gamecocks quarterback. Spurrier said Shaw beat out Garcia in the preseason quarterback derby and deserved to start versus ECU. Shaw quickly discovered the immense popularity USC fans bestow upon their beloved, dynamic #5. At the end of the first quarter and USC staring at a 17-0 deficit, Shaw meekly went to the bench (as planned) and watched Garcia quickly reverse USC’s fortunes (with LOTS of aid from ECU) and propel Carolina to a convincing win. Fast forward to Saturday, where Shaw once again is the starting quarterback, but with one caveat. Per Spurrier, Shaw will complete the game barring any injury. There will be no looking over his shoulder, no Garcia second guessing and teammates will be 100% behind Shaw versus the Wildcats (some questioned if all the players had Shaw’s back once Spurrier named Shaw the opening game starter). This opportunity is redemption for Shaw and if he is successful in protecting the football and completing passes, then the Connor Shaw era might not wait until 2012. Stephen Garcia has been given every single opportunity to improve his play this year. Unfortunately, however, he leads the FBS in interceptions with nine. Carolina fans should not expect miracles from Connor Shaw on Saturday and beyond. Shaw is young, playing behind a makeshift offensive line and an offensive coaching staff that quite frankly has coached very subpar so far this season. My advice to everyone on Saturday afternoon is to hope that Shaw can complete enough passes to loosen the UK defense which allows Marcus Lattimore more running room, manages the game, distributes the ball to playmakers and doesn’t force the ball where opportunities do not exist, i.e. turnovers.

Let’s Get Physical: As concerning as the deterioration of the quarterback play over the last eight quarters, coincidentally the offensive line has gotten its A$$ kicked the last two games! There is a reason why Garcia has thrown six interceptions the last two games and been running for his life– poor offensive line play! Vanderbilt and Auburn successfully devised a scheme for their defensive tackles to get penetration up field and disrupt running lanes for USC RB Marcus Lattimore. If you watch the three interior lineman for USC (LG: AJ Cann/Center: TJ Johnson/RG: Terrence Campbell) against UK this week, try and see if those three players get pushed back into Carolina’s backfield or create a surge that allows Lattimore room to pick a hole and run through it. The past two games those three players on USC’s o-line continuously got knocked into the backfield and, subsequently, Lattimore had no cutback lanes or openings to gain positive yards. Lattimore netted 143 rushing yards over the last two games after defenses stacked the box (placing 8 or 9 defenders no less than 8 yards from line of scrimmage) to halt the ground game. A stable running game can cure a lot of the ailments surrounding the USC offense. A running game starts up front with a physical offensive line. USC will be starting a new o-line this week: LT: Rokevious Watkins (switched from Right Tackle), LG: AJ Cann, Center: TJ Johnson, RG: Terrence Campbell, RT: Cody Gibson (new starter). The front five must keep Shaw upright in order for USC to win this game. UK is one of the best Pass Defenses, yielding 163 yards per game, in FBS but rank 100th in Run Defense, yielding 198 yards per game. If the o-line can give Shaw enough time to scan through his pass progressions and find his 2nd or 3rd receiver options, then the Wildcats will be forced to play honest defense (defend both pass & run) in which Lattimore will find more running lanes as the game evolves.

Dominant Defense: Carolina over the last ten quarters has only allowed 19 points and less than 450 yards of total offense (Navy, Vanderbilt & Auburn). Kentucky comes to Billy-Brice as the most inept offense in the SEC. Per ESPN, Kentucky is dead last in yards from scrimmage per game (255.6) and touchdowns (nine). UK Quarterback Morgan Newton has thrown six touchdowns to go along with his six interceptions. USC’s Pass Defense ranks 3rd in the FBS, but that is because opponents are finding more success running the ball on Carolina’s defense in 2011. Fortunately, rushing the football is not UK’s forte. South Carolina’s Secondary has been ball-hawkish this season, as they have registered eight INTs (Antonio Allen leads with three, while Melvin Ingram has two). Overall, the Gamecocks defense has been very opportunistic in 2011 recording 16 takeaways (8 fumble recoveries/8 interceptions), which ranks second in FBS rankings. The defense has tallied 13 sacks through five games, and against a beleaguered UK o-line the Carolina front four should get pressure on the Wildcats quarterback. As of today, senior defensive end Melvin Ingram is doubtful, so expect a heavy dose of Jadeveon Clowney and sophomore Chaz Sutton. With the UK offense being so anemic, IMHO, the front seven of USC should be able to handle and dictate what Kentucky does on offense.

1 loss does not = 2 losses: Even though Auburn ended dreams of an undefeated season, do not allow last week’s loss to linger into the Kentucky game. The Wildcats are a divisional opponent, and if USC wants to maintain its lead in the SEC East, it cannot afford a slip up versus a lowly Kentucky squad that has not beaten a Top 25 opponent on the road since 2002 (won at Louisville), per ESPN. Since 2002, Kentucky has lost 18 straight road contests versus ranked teams by almost three touchdowns, per ESPN. Losing to a divisional opponent does far more damage than losing to an SEC West team. Remember, the Gamecocks own the tie-breaker with UGA having beaten Georgia 45-42 in Athens. Georgia travels to Knoxville on Saturday in a key SEC East showdown at 7 p.m. If Carolina takes care of business against the Wildcats, then USC fans need to root hard for Tennessee to beat Georgia. The Gamecocks can’t afford a hiccup on Saturday and still have a legitimate chance to win the SEC East.

Revenge: Last year after five games Carolina was 4-1 and riding sky high after upsetting then #1 Alabama at home (oh, how a year later and one loss changes everything!). USC fans had all but written down a “W” in the win column, as Kentucky was already an afterthought. By halftime of the USC/UK game, Carolina led 31-10 after looking like a well-oiled machine on offense in Lexington, KY. Then the two teams switched jerseys at halftime, Lattimore suffers an ankle injury and UK’s defense holds Garcia & Co. to 103 total yards of offense in the 2nd half (49 came on the last drive of the 4th quarter). Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb capped a furious second-half rally (21 straight points) when the two connected with 1:15 left in the 4th quarter for the go-ahead touchdown and seconds later Cobb added the two-point conversion. The loss clearly affected South Carolina the following weekend in Nashville, as USC labored through a win versus Vanderbilt without starting freshman Marcus Lattimore. Every single USC player should seek payback against Kentucky on Saturday and avenge last year’s embarrassing second-half collapse!

Spurspective’s Prediction: Carolina wins UGLY 17-13.

My next blog will be Saturday morning when I will give my Top 10 college football “Must Watch” games Of Week Six.

Go Gamecocks!