There is a chance that history can be re-written on Saturday night if South Carolina can defeat its in-state rival, Clemson Tigers. The Gamecocks have a chance for a ten-win season (1984), back-to-back-to-back victories against the Tigers (’68, ’69 & ’70) and win a night game versus Clemson in Williams-Brice Stadium since the Reagan administration (1987). Both teams enter Saturday’s contest with identical records of 9-2, both teams are ranked in the Top 25 and for the second time (1988 both schools were 8-2) in the series history, both schools will enter the match-up with eight wins or more. When Saturday arrives, it will have been 1,092 days since USC last lost to Clemson in football (2008) and 728 days since USC began its two-game win streak against our most-hated rivals in the Northwest corner of Pickens County, SC. The magnitude of a win over Clemson would have such a positive impact on the Spurrier regime heading into year number eight in regards to in-state recruiting (2013), double-digit wins, an above .500 winning percentage against Clemson and most likely a destination to “Big D” in early January 2012! So enough history lessons for now, let’s take a look at the five key elements that will determine a USC victory on Saturday night.
Zone Read Option has been the bread and butter play for Carolina since the injection of Connor Shaw into the quarterback position. Shaw is the leading rushing quarterback in the SEC with nearly 400 total yards rushing. Freshman Brandon Wilds has eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark three times in four starts since Lattimore was injured in the Mississippi State game. Clemson’s Achilles heel the last couple of years is stopping mobile quarterbacks like Shaw, and the Tigers showed vulnerability when facing a running quarterback in a 31-17 loss at Georgia Tech earlier this season. USC has run the Zone Read Option play out of dozens of different formations and Shaw’s speed and decision-making in executing the Zone Read Option has ignited USC’s rushing attack since a mini two-game (Vanderbilt & Auburn) slump of rushing for less than 100 yards. Since Shaw took over the reins at quarterback, the Gamecocks ground game has churned out five 200-yard-plus rushing performances. In three home starts (UK, UF & The Citadel) this season with Shaw at quarterback, the Gamecocks ground game is averaging 253 yards rushing. Remember the Gamecocks are 17-0 under Steve Spurrier when rushing the football for 200 yards or more.
USC must limit Clemson’s big play strike capability for the Gamecocks to have a chance. Clemson has one of the most prolific and hectically deceptive offenses in college football. The Tigers rank inside the top 25 offensive categories in total yards (465) and points/game (35). The most daunting challenge for USC’s defense is the number of plays (58) 20-plus yards that the Tigers have amassed on the season. Clemson exploits teams that do not play assignment football with explosive plays utilizing fast, quick playmakers in space. The Tigers offense is up tempo and attempts to wear down a defense by running a lot of offensive plays. If given time to throw in the pocket, Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd will carve up the USC defense. South Carolina must limit Clemson’s big play aptitude and force the Tigers to sustain long drives in order to score, which then opens more windows for mistakes (11 turnovers last three games). The Gamecocks have allowed 28 plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks fifth in the FBS, per Darryl Slater of the Charleston Post & Courier.
South Carolina’s red zone defense must continue a trend that started improving after the first three games of the season. Against ECU, UGA and Navy, the USC defense yielded nine touchdowns (75%) in 12 red zone opportunities for its opponents. Since the Auburn game, the Gamecocks red zone defense has stiffened and only surrendered nine touchdowns (38%) in 24 red zone chances for its opponents, per Darryl Slater of the Charleston Post & Courier. USC’s goal is to not allow Clemson to score more than two touchdowns if Carolina stands a better than average chance of beating Clemson.
The Gamecocks Special Teams must be exceptional if USC is to defeat Clemson. Clemson Kickoff Return specialist Sammy Watkins is dynamite and a game changer returning kicks for the Tigers. USC has regressed all season long trying to cover kick-offs; even against The Citadel last week, Coach Spurrier bemoaned the fact that, twice, Bulldog return men netted 30-plus yard returns. Three weeks ago against Arkansas, South Carolina gave up a 98-yard kick-off return after taking an early 7-3 lead. The Gamecocks did a nice job of containing Florida’s return specialists two weeks ago and must use the same blueprint in order to negate Clemson’s advantage on kickoff and punt returns. The pooch kick or squib kick must be executed properly in order to give the USC tacklers a chance to get downfield, get off blocks, maintain proper lane-discipline (when covering kicks or punts each defender is assigned a specific lane responsibility) and make the tackle.
The USC d-line must apply pressure to Tajh Boyd with a four-man rush. If you watched the last two Clemson games (Wake Forest and NC State) then you saw the blueprint to beat the Tigers. Rush four men or fewer and drop all other defenders into pass coverage. The logic seems to prove that Boyd is unable to make smart decisions with the football while under duress from a pass rush and with smaller throwing windows. The proof is in the pudding the last 12 quarters for Clemson: 11 turnovers and seven sacks (six sacks last week). If Ingram, Taylor, Robertson, Quarles and Clowney can generate a consistent pass rush throughout the night and disrupt the timing between the Clemson quarterback and WRs then I like USC’s chances to win. IMHO, the Tigers will scheme similar plays to what Arkansas did to avoid the Carolina pass rush and that is to roll the quarterback out of the pocket and buy extra seconds to find open receivers. This plan can only work if the o-line is mobile and can sustain its blocks. That’s a big question with Clemson’s o-line injury situation at both tackle positions (Price & Walker). The Carolina front four are the most pivotal players in this game. If the d-line gets to Boyd with a four-man rush, it will be a long night for Clemson. If USC‘s d-line cannot generate a pass rush and Ellis Johnson is forced to blitz then I like Clemson’s chances to win.
SPURspective’s Prediction: USC is a top five defense. Clemson is a top 20 offense. Clemson has won five straight night games in Columbia. USC last won at night against Clemson in the cockpit back in 1987. South Carolina wins 31-20.
My next blog will be Monday afternoon when I review the South Carolina/Clemson game.
Go Gamecocks!
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