Thursday, November 17, 2011

SEC Power Index & USC Bowl Destinations

With week eleven in the books, the Gamecocks wrapped up their portion of the SEC Conference schedule with a win over the Florida Gators. The win was a milestone for the South Carolina football program, as the Gamecocks achieved six conference wins for the first time in school history as a member of the SEC Conference. The Gamecocks also went unbeaten (5-0) against the SEC East Division as a league member. Unfortunately, going undefeated versus the SEC East will not guarantee USC a return trip to the Georgia Dome as the SEC East’s representative. The mid-season slip-up against Auburn will more than likely cost Carolina a second consecutive SEC East Division crown, because USC had to play Arkansas, and Georgia did not play any of the top three teams (LSU, BAMA & Arkansas) on its 2011 schedule. With some Southeastern Conference schools yet to play remaining conference games, let’s see where the 12 universities stack up in this week’s SEC Power Index edition.

SEC Power Index:
1. LSU: The Bayou Bengals awoke from a first half slumber against Western Kentucky last Saturday night and plowed over the Hilltoppers in the second half. LSU is ranked #1 in the BCS with a match-up on the road at Oxford, MS against the worst team in the SEC (Ole Miss).
2. Alabama: The Crimson Tide exorcised some offensive demons in Starkville, MS last Saturday night as BAMA didn’t roll any upset bones to the Bulldogs. Alabama dives into the sisters of the poor conference (Georgia Southern) with many of its other SEC brethren before rivalry week next weekend.
3. Arkansas: The Razorbacks are sitting in the top six of the BCS with SEC West division games against Mississippi State (Little Rock) this Saturday and then LSU next Friday afternoon in Baton Rouge. If Arkansas wins out, then the SEC West & BCS get very muddy!
4. Georgia: The Bulldogs are looking like they are hitting on all cylinders at the right time. If the Dawgs can avoid a letdown (99.9% not happening!) against Kentucky then Georgia will represent the SEC East in the ATL (Atlanta). I won’t be waiting around to see if the Joker’s Wild between the hedges on Saturday.
5. South Carolina: The Gamecocks slim hope of repeating as SEC East champs resides in the hands of the Kentucky Wildcats upsetting Georgia this Saturday. USC can take solace in the fact that Carolina achieved a momentous accomplishment of garnering their sixth conference win and a chance to still win 10 regular season games.
6. Auburn: This Cam Newton-less Tigers squad looks like a shell of itself coming down the stretch of this season. Auburn looked like a demoralized team midway through the second quarter of last week’s game against Georgia. The Tigers close out the schedule by staying within the Yellow Hammer borders. This week Samford and then next week the Crimson Tide visit the Plains.
7. Florida: The Gators are still a talented team but boy it’s trying to fit a square peg (spread option personnel) in a round hole (Pro-style offense personnel). The Gators are almost 20 scholarships under the 85-scholarship limit. Urban Meyer recruited well during his heyday but this team lacks severe skill players at wide receiver and big between the tackles running backs.
8. Vanderbilt: Do you all believe in the apocalypse? Well if you don’t, then maybe seeing that Vanderbilt is a one-point favorite in Neyland Stadium this Saturday might change your opinion. Head Coach James Franklin is a breath of fresh air & what a difference a quarterback (Jordan Rodgers) who can throw the ball makes in an offense’s productivity. Vanderbilt is bowl eligible if it wins on Rocky Top.
9. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs have fallen well-short of preseason expectations coming off a Gator Bowl victory over Michigan. MSU travels to Little Rock this Saturday to face the best offense in the SEC. The Bulldogs have incorporated a two-quarterback system, which has netted the Bulldogs only one win (at Kentucky) since its inception. Two QBs equals Zero QBs!
10. Tennessee: The Volunteers are really struggling with several injuries at key positions (QB & WR) along with several young players littered up & down the roster. Most teams cannot survive when losing two of their top two stars, except for USC, which lost Garcia and Lattimore. It’s the SEC and nobody feels sorry for UT. Saturday the battle for the Volunteer State’s football supremacy is at stake when Vanderbilt travels east on I-40 to Knoxville to play the Volunteers.
11. Kentucky: Thank goodness hoops season is underway and Joker Phillips can return to his forgotten man role until early April. Kentucky is an awful football team and appears to be getting worse. Hey UK fans, Mike Leach needs a gig! How about a reunion minus Hal Mumme?
12. Ole Miss: You can’t say that Ole Miss Fans were blindsided by this season! It has been a very tumultuous two years in Oxford the last 24 months. Even Sandra Bullock could not energize enthusiasm into this crumbling football program. The Egg Bowl next weekend could leave the Ole Miss Athletics department with egg on its face heading into the holiday season!

South Carolina Bowl Scenario:
The Gamecocks are bowl eligible and, as of right now, still trying to determine where USC might end up to welcome in 2012. One thing is for sure, after South Carolina plays Clemson, the Gamecocks will be playing early next year, 2012. Most of the bowl projections have USC traveling to three possible destinations:

1. Cotton Bowl (Dallas, TX)
2. Capital One Bowl (Orlando, FL)
3. Outback Bowl (Tampa, FL)


It appears the Cotton Bowl and Outback Bowl are USC’s top two choices if LSU & Alabama earn BCS bowl bids. The slotting would fall this way if LSU wins out:

LSU – BCS Championship
Alabama – Sugar Bowl
Arkansas – Capital One Bowl
Cotton Bowl – South Carolina
Outback Bowl – Georgia

If Arkansas or Georgia defeat LSU then the bowl pecking order gets crazy. I am not sure how that would play out but more than likely USC would head to the Outback Bowl. The Cotton Bowl prefers SEC West teams. LSU played there last year. BAMA is headed to a BCS bowl game, and LSU, UGA or Arkansas will join the Crimson Tide. If UGA loses in the SEC Championship, then UGA could be headed to the Capital One Bowl or Outback. USC’s primary destinations will either be Dallas, TX or Tampa, FL. I do not believe South Carolina falls below the Outback bowl.

The opponents in the Cotton Bowl could be one of three teams: Oklahoma, Kansas State or Texas. (Oklahoma State is headed to a BCS game no matter win or lose versus Oklahoma).

The opponents in the Outback Bowl could be one of three teams: Nebraska, Michigan or Penn State.

As the next three weeks will play out, USC’s bowl season endpoint will become more clear and a possible trip to Big “D” could be the destination where an SEC East team has not participated since 1999 (Tennessee).

My next blog will be Friday afternoon as I provide my top five keys to a USC victory.

Go Gamecocks!

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