Five Keys to a South Carolina Victory Over Nebraska

The South Carolina Gamecocks can distinguish themselves as winning the most games in school history by defeating 20th ranked Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl on Monday. South Carolina’s football program has never exceeded more than ten wins in a season (’84 & ‘2011) but the possibility for that elusive number “11” is attainable with a win over the Cornhuskers. The Gamecocks enter the bowl game riding a three game winning streak (Florida, The Citadel and Clemson) to close out the regular season. Nebraska comes into bowl season winning two out of three games down the stretch against Penn State and Iowa, while losing in The Big House to Michigan. Under Steve Spurrier, the Gamecocks are 1-4 in bowl games and riding a three-game bowl losing streak. The Cornhuskers are 3-1 in bowl games under Head Coach Bo Pelini, losing last year to Washington. Nebraska is undefeated (3-0) all-time versus South Carolina, most recently winning a home-and-home series in ’86 & ’87. Nebraska is 12-5 all-time versus the SEC in bowl games, including a 7-4 record against top ten SEC opponents in the postseason.

There are many different storylines entering this game bowl match-up. There is a new USC defensive coordinator, Lorenzo Ward, since the end of the Clemson game, as Ellis Johnson departed for Hattiesburg, MS to take over the reins at Southern Miss University. There is no Linebackers or Running Backs Coach for USC. Nebraska has a new defensive coordinator, as well, as its d-coordinator, Carl Pelini, accepted the Head Coach position at Florida Atlantic University. Nebraska has hired a former d-line coach, Rick Kaczenski, from Iowa, who once was a Graduate Assistant at South Carolina during the Lou Holtz regime.

A milestone victory over a storied, tradition-rich Nebraska football program would have such a positive impact on the Gamecocks football team heading into the offseason. Eleven wins, immense recruiting momentum and a stamp on a memorable Garnet & Black calendar year!

So enough history lessons for now, let’s take a look at the five key components that will determine a USC victory on Monday afternoon.

Zone Read Option has been money for South Carolina since the insertion of Connor Shaw into the starting quarterback position mid-season after the demotion of Stephen Garcia. Shaw is the leading rushing quarterback in the SEC with 483 rushing yards on 116 attempts, including his best rushing effort of the season against in-state rival Clemson with a 107 rushing yard performance. Complementing Shaw is freshman RB Brandon Wilds, who has eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark three times in four starts, while seldom-used Kenny Miles emerged as the work horse in the season finale against Clemson with 71 yards rushing on 21 carries. Nebraska’s Achilles heel this year has been stopping mobile quarterbacks like Shaw, and the Cornhuskers demonstrated susceptibility when facing a mobile quarterback in three losses (Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan) this season. USC runs the Zone Read Option play out of dozens of different formations, and Shaw’s speed and decision-making in executing the Zone Read Option has ignited South Carolina’s ground game down the stretch. Since Shaw took over the reins at quarterback, the Gamecocks ground game has churned out six 200-yard-plus rushing performances. Remember, the Gamecocks are 18-0 under Steve Spurrier when rushing the football for 200 yards or more. IMHO, the two most important numbers for USC to win this game are 40 and 70%. The Gamecocks are undefeated (9-0) when attempting 40-plus rush attempts. In The Citadel game, USC only rushed a meager 37 times! In the three Cornhuskers’ losses, their Big Ten opponents ran the football at least 70 percent of their respective offensive plays. If any combination of Shaw, Miles or Wilds accumulates 40 or more carries then that bodes well for South Carolina. FYI, Nebraska’s preseason All-American Defensive Tackle Jared Crick suffered a torn pectoral muscle in the Washington game and had his season shut down following the Ohio State game to avoid further damage.

Addition by subtraction might actually benefit USC along the line of scrimmage, if Terrance Campbell is unable to play many snaps on the offensive line on Monday. Campbell is trying to persevere through a broken fibula he suffered during the Clemson game at the end of the first half, but on Friday and Saturday the sixth-year senior wasn’t able to participate in practice. With the return of fifth-year senior Kyle Nunn at Left Tackle and the emergence of freshman Mike Matulis at Right Tackle, o-line coach Shawn Elliott has been afforded the luxury of practicing All-SEC performer Rokevious Watkins at Right Guard, IMHO his most natural position on the o-line. I hope Campbell is well enough to play, but if he cannot play, then I think shifting Watkins inside to RG would provide Carolina a bigger, more physical presence at the point-of-attack in the Zone Read Option portion of the playbook. A starting o-line unit of Left Tackle – Kyle Nunn, Left Guard – AJ Cann, Center – TJ Johnson, Right Guard – Rokevious Watkins and Right Tackle – Mike Matulis would be the best combo that o-line coach Shawn Elliott could trot out onto the field. Getting Kyle Nunn back from his back surgery is a huge bonus, when Steve Spurrier calls for the vertical passing game. Blocking Shaw’s blindside when the sophomore takes five or seven step drops (staples of SOS’ offenses) was treacherous for the Georgia native, as defenses amassed 22 sacks against USC during Nunn’s absence. The Gamecocks yielded just four sacks when Nunn anchored the left side of the offensive line.

USC’s front seven must contain the two-headed monster of Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead on early downs. If the Nebraska tandem reaches the perimeter of the Carolina defense, it will expose our slower linebacker’s corps ability to pursue from sideline-to-sideline. Nebraska will undoubtedly attempt to exploit the middle of the USC d-line, which has been vulnerable against the run throughout the season. South Carolina’s Rush Defense ranks 44th in FBS, allowing just less than 136 rushing yards/game (3.68 yards per carry); if you remove the run-heavy opponents, Wofford & The Citadel, the Gamecocks are only yielding 111.6 rushing yards/game and a meager 3.26 yards per carry by opposing ball carriers, which is very respectable. Nebraska unfortunately is predominantly run-oriented (14th Rush Offense in FBS) and averages 47 rush attempts & slightly less than 224 rushing yards/game. The best rush defense the Cornhuskers faced all year was Michigan State (12th, 104 yards/game) in which the Cornhuskers rushed 58 times for 190 yards (3.28 yards per carry, respectable) in a 24-3 win in Lincoln, NE. In the three losses, the Cornhuskers averaged 3.84 yards per carry while averaging 36 rush attempts (eleven less than NU’s season average) for just less than 140 yards on the ground. Limiting the success of Martinez and Burkhead on first & second downs can negate Nebraska’s strength and force the Cornhuskers’ Martinez into passing situations that will play into USC’s strength, Pass Defense, which is ranked 2nd in FBS and forcing turnovers (30 TOs gained), INTs – 18 & Fumble Recoveries - 12.

Eliminate any “Cornhusker Kickbacks” on Special Teams that provide Nebraska any momentum swings during the game. The Cornhuskers are 6th in FBS in Kickoff Returns averaging just less than 26 yards/game, while the Gamecocks allow just over 22 kickoff return yards per kickoff. The biggest kickoff return threat is Ameer Abdullah, who has one kickoff return (100-yard KOR TD versus Fresno State) for a touchdown to his credit this year. Abdullah averages 30 kickoff return yards/game. The Cornhuskers rank near the bottom, 95th overall, of the FBS in Kickoff Return Yardage Allowed. NU surrenders almost 24 kickoff return yards per kickoff. The Gamecocks average 21 kickoff return yards per attempt.

Gar-CYA three-game bowl losing streak without the Lutz, FL native taking snaps for the Gamecocks. Love him or hate him the lightning rod quarterback often saved his worst performances for post-season play in a Gamecocks uniform over his career. In three career bowl games played by Garcia, the former quarterback accounted for nine total turnovers (seven INTs & two fumbles). Six of the seven interceptions occurred in the first halves of the Outback (Jan. ’09) & Chick-fil-A (Dec. 2010) bowl games, which put his team in horrible early deficits that the Gamecocks were unable to overcome. Leading up to last year’s Chick-fil-A bowl game in Atlanta, Garcia and some other teammates violated team rules by allowing coeds into their hotel rooms post-curfew. The incident was not made known to the public until March, when Steve Spurrier announced Garcia would be suspended for spring practice for violating team rules at the bowl game. The Gamecocks will welcome a quarterback this bowl season that abides by the rules and prepares 100 percent for the upcoming bowl game instead of extracurricular activities off the field. Hopefully with a focused and motivated quarterback, Carolina can start a bowl winning streak and Gar-CYA the bowl losing streak.

SPURspective’s Prediction: USC shucks the Huskers back to Lincoln, Gamecocks win 38-24.

Go Gamecocks!